Part 2: The Future of Automobile Design
Searching for Direction
The first decade of the 21st century marks a sea change in consciousness of Green marketed products. While many great strides have been made since the 60's in technology to improve water, earth, and air quality, Green has become a signature for the marketing of eco-friendly products. While European automakers have focused upon high efficiency diesel engines, American's have been taken by the introduction of Hybrid-Electric vehicles. Hybrid-Electrics were promoted vigorously by Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute in Snowmass Colorado, a Green research organization. Technologically, the European diesels rival the Hybrids in overall efficiency, yet the Hybrid has become a personal signature statement in Green consciousness in America. The Green movement has sparked interest in plug-in electric vehicles harkening back to the era of 19th century electrics boosted by the technological advantages of batteries that store more energy per pound of weight. The future of the electric car is dependent upon cost and performance characteristics of batteries the future of which remain inside the crystal ball. While electrics are compelling in concept, gasoline still yields the highest energy per pound of any fuel source alternative. Hydrogen is also a compelling concept but it takes infrastructure to produce and distribute. In the end, economics still rules the day and gasoline, as long as it is relatively inexpensive, is the fuel source to beat.
Paradigm Shift
The argument can be made that we are approaching a critical juncture that requires a paradigm shift. Incremental changes in fuel and power sources may never get us where we need to be. Since the 19th century the automobile industry has been based upon the concept of a four wheel vehicle powered by an engine to propel it under human control down a network of pathways or roads. When an analyst calculates the material and energy required moving people and materials on a daily basis through these systems it begs the question, "is this the best way to go forward?" Is it time to ask the question, if we started with a clean slate, is this how we would do it? Ground vehicular transportation remains an incrementally evolved configuration that began with horses and buggies. It's been nearly 200 years and the fundamental concept remains the same. Computers have come out of the human brain and evolved exponentially while transportation is stuck in 19th century fundamentals.
Amory Lovins coined the term "nega-watts." It's a good term as it expresses the potential to free up more power by using it more efficiently. It is the signature concept of the Green movement, "Do more - use less." Another way of saying this is define the new economy as the Efficiency Economy. The principle concept in the Efficiency Economy is to reduce material mass in motion. The US auto fleet on average is utilized at a rate of four percent. Theoretically we could use four cars out of 100 if they could be perfectly in constant use. The weight of a car ranges between 2000 and 4000 pounds. A gondola, and elevator, and a rail car will carry much more load per vehicle pound than an automobile. They can do this because significantly they move on guided networks. With all due respects to Harley Earl and the open top car driving freely across the American landscape, that era has ended with clogged highways juggernauts of freeways snaking through cities with congested parking capacity.
Transportation systems are characterized by vehicles and networks on which vehicles move. Vehicular design is created by corporate entities while the network is controlled by government bodies. Creating a new paradigm means rethinking the vehicle in conjunction with the network. Since these networks connect cities, town, and rural lands, any new paradigm requires grand new visions. Who will do give us the grand visions and the impetus to explore transportation in the new paradigm.
We need a green Harley Earl who will lead us into a new paradigm. We need this person NOW!